Lost just over a unit this Week which was reasonable given the way games played out, its important after every week to analyse your Bets win or lose, to see if what you did was acceptable, only then can you fine tune your Bets for maximum value and be happy with them.
In this Thread I want explain some theories on hedging which is essential in beating the Books at their own game. First of all as usual, you must have all the Accounts in Books that do live betting, especially Exchanges like Betfair and Betdaq. Hedging on a regular basis must be looked on as a disadvantage to the Bettor basically because it eats into the potential win percentage whereas when you have a loss you lose 100% of your bet. However, as long as the Odds you are taking are in your favour, it almost begs you for a hedge.
My limit on a game is 20% of the original price and the reason for this is that is the percentage of goals scored in the last 15 Minutes of a Premiership game. The minute your Team goes ahead, by putting in a lay of 20% of stake, that hedge will be value up to the 75th minute, conversely you take a price over 20% the opposition with 15 Minutes to go. The bottom line here is not hedging cluelessly which erodes your overall profit while using those same odds to enhance your advantage.
Todays results were a prime example of this theory paying dividends on your earlier hard work whereas if those games stayed the way they were when you hedged, the 20% loss of profit will at some stage be recovered plus honours. :drink:
In this Thread I want explain some theories on hedging which is essential in beating the Books at their own game. First of all as usual, you must have all the Accounts in Books that do live betting, especially Exchanges like Betfair and Betdaq. Hedging on a regular basis must be looked on as a disadvantage to the Bettor basically because it eats into the potential win percentage whereas when you have a loss you lose 100% of your bet. However, as long as the Odds you are taking are in your favour, it almost begs you for a hedge.
My limit on a game is 20% of the original price and the reason for this is that is the percentage of goals scored in the last 15 Minutes of a Premiership game. The minute your Team goes ahead, by putting in a lay of 20% of stake, that hedge will be value up to the 75th minute, conversely you take a price over 20% the opposition with 15 Minutes to go. The bottom line here is not hedging cluelessly which erodes your overall profit while using those same odds to enhance your advantage.
Todays results were a prime example of this theory paying dividends on your earlier hard work whereas if those games stayed the way they were when you hedged, the 20% loss of profit will at some stage be recovered plus honours. :drink:
